Agency: Global oil demand may reach pre-crisis level by 2022

MOSCOW, May 26 (PRIME) -- Global demand for oil may reach the pre-crisis level by 2022 if restrictions introduced over the coronavirus pandemic are eased, rating agency NKR said on Tuesday.

“The rate of return of global demand for oil and oil products to the level of 2019 will depend on the rate of restoration of cross-border transport activity and resumption of the pre-crisis growth path for the largest hydrocarbon consumers. NKR believes that in the baseline scenario, demand for oil can reach the pre-crisis level by 2022,” the agency said.

NKR projects that oil prices will grow to U.S. $35–40 per barrel in the second half of the year and to $37–42 per barrel in 2021. Revenue from Russia’s oil and oil products exports will amount to $95 billion in 2020 and $100 billion in 2021.

In the negative scenario, demand for oil may fall by 14–15% to 86 million barrels per day.

“This will happen if the end of quarantine is delayed and the risk of new waves of the COVID-19 pandemic is increased. To maintain prices at the minimum acceptable levels for oil producing countries, an additional reduction in oil production by OPEC+ participants will be required,” the agency said.

In this scenario, oil prices are seen at $33 per barrel in the second half of 2020 and $35 per barrel in 2021. Export revenue will reduce to $75 billion in 2020 and $81 billion in 2021.

NKR also does not rule out a new redistribution of the oil market after the end of the OPEC+ oil production cut deal in the first quarter of 2022.

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